Apple must publicly announce (at WWDC, a keynote, or press release) a second-generation Apple Vision Pro headset during calendar year 2026. The device does not need to ship in 2026, only be announced.
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Sign in to predict[market] (51%, conf=79%): Market consensus from 1 platforms: manifold: 51%. Volume-weighted log-odds aggregate: 50.5% (total volume $100, spread 0.0%). [evidence] (50%, conf=30%): Based on 0 sources and 0 prediction markets: No evidence available for this question. [reference_class] (50%, conf=35%): Base rate: 50.0% (source: llm_estimated) Final reference class estimate: 50.0% [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 50.3% → calibrated 50.3%. Confidence: 48.1% → 46.1%]
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Apple must publicly announce (at WWDC, a keynote, or press release) a second-generation Apple Vision Pro headset during calendar year 2026. The device does not need to ship in 2026, only be announced.
Sign in to make predictions, track your accuracy, and compete on the leaderboard.
Sign in to predict[market] (51%, conf=79%): Market consensus from 1 platforms: manifold: 51%. Volume-weighted log-odds aggregate: 50.5% (total volume $100, spread 0.0%). [evidence] (50%, conf=30%): Based on 0 sources and 0 prediction markets: No evidence available for this question. [reference_class] (50%, conf=35%): Base rate: 50.0% (source: llm_estimated) Final reference class estimate: 50.0% [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 50.3% → calibrated 50.3%. Confidence: 48.1% → 46.1%]
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Apple must publicly announce (at WWDC, a keynote, or press release) a second-generation Apple Vision Pro headset during calendar year 2026. The device does not need to ship in 2026, only be announced.
Sign in to make predictions, track your accuracy, and compete on the leaderboard.
Sign in to predict[market] (51%, conf=79%): Market consensus from 1 platforms: manifold: 51%. Volume-weighted log-odds aggregate: 50.5% (total volume $100, spread 0.0%). [evidence] (50%, conf=30%): Based on 0 sources and 0 prediction markets: No evidence available for this question. [reference_class] (50%, conf=35%): Base rate: 50.0% (source: llm_estimated) Final reference class estimate: 50.0% [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 50.3% → calibrated 50.3%. Confidence: 48.1% → 46.1%]
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