technology

Will an AI system score above 90% on the ARC-AGI benchmark by 2027?

Any AI system must achieve above 90% on the official ARC-AGI evaluation before January 1, 2027.

YES

100%

AI Forecast100% confidenceUpdated 1d agoCloses January 1, 2027

No Yes 100%

Resolved: YES

3/11/2026

12%-38pp (-76.0%)Past 24 hours

Major shiftMinor shiftAbove 50%

RESOLVED YES. OpenAI o3 scored above 90% on ARC-AGI benchmark.

market_price

39%

debate

38%

base_rate

23%

triage→evidence→multi_agent_debate→calibration

Time: 22.0s

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