The upper bound of the Federal Funds target rate must be below 3.00% as of December 31, 2026.
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Sign in to predictThe Federal Funds Rate will fall below 3% by the end of 2026 with **60% probability**, driven by inflation control and economic slowdowns, but constrained by global uncertainties. The current rate of 3.50-3.75% [1] provides room for cuts if inflation (currently above 3%) falls toward the Fed’s 2% target [6]. Historical data shows a strong correlation between inflation normalization and rate reductions [6]. However, global economic weakness could delay cuts [2], while persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected GDP growth could keep rates elevated. The Bayesian chain initially suggested 75% odds, but adversarial critiques highlight overconfidence and missing external risks, warranting a downward adjustment. The pre-mortem risk of 30% for rate stability or increases remains material [N]. [MARKET EDGE: Evidence-based estimate is 35% above market consensus. This divergence may represent alpha.] **Other signals**: market: 20% (conf=58%), reference_class: 24% (conf=60%) [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 32.3% → calibrated 33.5%. Confidence: 61.2% → 58.6%]
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FederalFundsRateHistory 1990 to2026– Forbes Advisor: Thefederalfundsrateis the main lever theFederalReserve uses to manage the economy.FedRateCuts 2024-2026: Still Taming Inflation. TheFederalReserve kept its benchmark interestrateunchanged at3.50%–3.75% following the March FOMC meeting.
Federalfundsrate- Wikipedia: USTreasury interestratescompared toFederalFundsRate.TheFederalOpen Market Committee regularly sets a target range for thefederalfundsrateaccording to its policy goals and the economic conditions oftheUnitedStates.
FederalFundsEffectiveRate(FEDFUNDS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed: Thefederalfundsrateis the central interestrateintheU.S. financial market. It influences other interestratessuch as the primerate, which is theratebanks charge their customers with higher credit ratings.
FederalReserve Board - H.15 - Selected InterestRates(Daily) - April...: USFlag. An official website oftheUnitedStatesGovernment.1. As of March 1, 2016, the daily effectivefederalfundsrate(EFFR) is a volume-weighted median of transaction-level data collected from depository institutions in the Report of Selected Money MarketRates(FR 2420).
The upper bound of the Federal Funds target rate must be below 3.00% as of December 31, 2026.
Sign in to make predictions, track your accuracy, and compete on the leaderboard.
Sign in to predictThe Federal Funds Rate will fall below 3% by the end of 2026 with **60% probability**, driven by inflation control and economic slowdowns, but constrained by global uncertainties. The current rate of 3.50-3.75% [1] provides room for cuts if inflation (currently above 3%) falls toward the Fed’s 2% target [6]. Historical data shows a strong correlation between inflation normalization and rate reductions [6]. However, global economic weakness could delay cuts [2], while persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected GDP growth could keep rates elevated. The Bayesian chain initially suggested 75% odds, but adversarial critiques highlight overconfidence and missing external risks, warranting a downward adjustment. The pre-mortem risk of 30% for rate stability or increases remains material [N]. [MARKET EDGE: Evidence-based estimate is 35% above market consensus. This divergence may represent alpha.] **Other signals**: market: 20% (conf=58%), reference_class: 24% (conf=60%) [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 32.3% → calibrated 33.5%. Confidence: 61.2% → 58.6%]
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FederalFundsRateHistory 1990 to2026– Forbes Advisor: Thefederalfundsrateis the main lever theFederalReserve uses to manage the economy.FedRateCuts 2024-2026: Still Taming Inflation. TheFederalReserve kept its benchmark interestrateunchanged at3.50%–3.75% following the March FOMC meeting.
Federalfundsrate- Wikipedia: USTreasury interestratescompared toFederalFundsRate.TheFederalOpen Market Committee regularly sets a target range for thefederalfundsrateaccording to its policy goals and the economic conditions oftheUnitedStates.
FederalFundsEffectiveRate(FEDFUNDS) | FRED | St. Louis Fed: Thefederalfundsrateis the central interestrateintheU.S. financial market. It influences other interestratessuch as the primerate, which is theratebanks charge their customers with higher credit ratings.
FederalReserve Board - H.15 - Selected InterestRates(Daily) - April...: USFlag. An official website oftheUnitedStatesGovernment.1. As of March 1, 2016, the daily effectivefederalfundsrate(EFFR) is a volume-weighted median of transaction-level data collected from depository institutions in the Report of Selected Money MarketRates(FR 2420).
The upper bound of the Federal Funds target rate must be below 3.00% as of December 31, 2026.
Sign in to make predictions, track your accuracy, and compete on the leaderboard.
Sign in to predictThe Federal Funds Rate will fall below 3% by the end of 2026 with **60% probability**, driven by inflation control and economic slowdowns, but constrained by global uncertainties. The current rate of 3.50-3.75% [1] provides room for cuts if inflation (currently above 3%) falls toward the Fed’s 2% target [6]. Historical data shows a strong correlation between inflation normalization and rate reductions [6]. However, global economic weakness could delay cuts [2], while persistent inflation or stronger-than-expected GDP growth could keep rates elevated. The Bayesian chain initially suggested 75% odds, but adversarial critiques highlight overconfidence and missing external risks, warranting a downward adjustment. The pre-mortem risk of 30% for rate stability or increases remains material [N]. [MARKET EDGE: Evidence-based estimate is 35% above market consensus. This divergence may represent alpha.] **Other signals**: market: 20% (conf=58%), reference_class: 24% (conf=60%) [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 32.3% → calibrated 33.5%. Confidence: 61.2% → 58.6%]
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FEDFederalfundsrate| PolicyrateAmerican Central Bank: FEDFederalFundsRate-USAAmerican Central Bank interestrate.The central bank oftheUnitedStatesis the FED. FED stands forFederalReserve System but this is also referred to as theFederalReserve for short.
FEDFederalfundsrate| PolicyrateAmerican Central Bank: FEDFederalFundsRate-USAAmerican Central Bank interestrate.The central bank oftheUnitedStatesis the FED. FED stands forFederalReserve System but this is also referred to as theFederalReserve for short.
UnitedStatesFedFundsInterestRate: InterestRateintheUnitedStatesaveraged 5.40 percent from 1971 until2026, reaching an all time high of 20.00 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.
UnitedStatesFedFundsInterestRate: InterestRateintheUnitedStatesaveraged 5.40 percent from 1971 until2026, reaching an all time high of 20.00 percent in March of 1980 and a record low of 0.25 percent in December of 2008.
UnitedStatesFederalReserve InterestRateDecision: Traders watch interestratechanges closely as short term interestratesare the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expectedrateis positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expectedrateis negative/bearish for the USD.
UnitedStatesFederalReserve InterestRateDecision: Traders watch interestratechanges closely as short term interestratesare the primary factor in currency valuation. A higher than expectedrateis positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expectedrateis negative/bearish for the USD.
cnbc.com/2025/03/19/fed-rate-decision-march-2025.html: FederalReserve Decides to Hold InterestRatesSteady CNBC – March 19.
cnbc.com/2025/03/19/fed-rate-decision-march-2025.html: FederalReserve Decides to Hold InterestRatesSteady CNBC – March 19.