Meta must publicly release a large language model branded as Llama 5 (or the next numbered major version after Llama 4) with downloadable model weights before December 31, 2026. The model must be available for download, not just API access.
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Sign in to predict[market] (65%, conf=52%): Market consensus from 2 platforms: manifold: 85%. Volume-weighted log-odds aggregate: 65.1% (total volume $1,100, spread 42.8%). [evidence] (50%, conf=30%): Based on 0 sources and 0 prediction markets: No evidence available for this question. [MARKET EDGE: Evidence-based estimate is 14% below market consensus. This divergence may represent alpha.] [reference_class] (58%, conf=45%): Base rate: 50.0% (source: llm_estimated) Adjustments: + manifold (43%) → market_price_down_5pct: 50.0% → 42.5% + manifold (85%) → market_price_up_10pct: 42.5% → 57.8% Final reference class estimate: 57.8% [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 59.7% → calibrated 59.0%. Confidence: 42.2% → 40.5%]
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Meta must publicly release a large language model branded as Llama 5 (or the next numbered major version after Llama 4) with downloadable model weights before December 31, 2026. The model must be available for download, not just API access.
Sign in to make predictions, track your accuracy, and compete on the leaderboard.
Sign in to predict[market] (65%, conf=52%): Market consensus from 2 platforms: manifold: 85%. Volume-weighted log-odds aggregate: 65.1% (total volume $1,100, spread 42.8%). [evidence] (50%, conf=30%): Based on 0 sources and 0 prediction markets: No evidence available for this question. [MARKET EDGE: Evidence-based estimate is 14% below market consensus. This divergence may represent alpha.] [reference_class] (58%, conf=45%): Base rate: 50.0% (source: llm_estimated) Adjustments: + manifold (43%) → market_price_down_5pct: 50.0% → 42.5% + manifold (85%) → market_price_up_10pct: 42.5% → 57.8% Final reference class estimate: 57.8% [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 59.7% → calibrated 59.0%. Confidence: 42.2% → 40.5%]
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Meta must publicly release a large language model branded as Llama 5 (or the next numbered major version after Llama 4) with downloadable model weights before December 31, 2026. The model must be available for download, not just API access.
Sign in to make predictions, track your accuracy, and compete on the leaderboard.
Sign in to predict[market] (65%, conf=52%): Market consensus from 2 platforms: manifold: 85%. Volume-weighted log-odds aggregate: 65.1% (total volume $1,100, spread 42.8%). [evidence] (50%, conf=30%): Based on 0 sources and 0 prediction markets: No evidence available for this question. [MARKET EDGE: Evidence-based estimate is 14% below market consensus. This divergence may represent alpha.] [reference_class] (58%, conf=45%): Base rate: 50.0% (source: llm_estimated) Adjustments: + manifold (43%) → market_price_down_5pct: 50.0% → 42.5% + manifold (85%) → market_price_up_10pct: 42.5% → 57.8% Final reference class estimate: 57.8% [Horizon calibration applied: 9mo horizon → 7% pull toward base rate 50.0%. Raw estimate 59.7% → calibrated 59.0%. Confidence: 42.2% → 40.5%]
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